How Buhari's Death Could Have Rewritten Tinubu's Destiny and Nigeria's Political Landsc

The Unfulfilled Scenario: How Buhari's Death Could Have Rewritten Tinubu's Destiny and Nigeria's Political Landscape

Former President Buhari 

The notion that "God truly loves Nigeria and President Tinubu" takes on a profound, almost chilling dimension when we consider a specific counterfactual: What if President Muhammadu Buhari had died in office?  This hypothetical scenario, far from mere speculation, reveals how precariously the intricate political machinery built over decades by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu rested on the health of one man. Had Buhari passed away during his tenure, the trajectory of Nigerian politics, and Tinubu's own 25-year quest for the presidency, would have been irrevocably altered, potentially rendering the resonant "Emilokan" (It's my turn) declaration a historical footnote.

1. The Constitutional Trigger: Osinbajo's Automatic Ascent

- Reference: Section 146(1) of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (as amended): "The Vice-President shall hold the office of President if the office of President becomes vacant by reason of death or resignation, impeachment, permanent incapacity or the removal of the President from office for any other reason in accordance with section 143 of this Constitution."

- What Would Have Happened:  Buhari's death would have created an immediate constitutional vacuum filled seamlessly by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. He would have been sworn in as President of Nigeria, not merely "Acting President," within hours. This isn't discretionary; it's mandatory constitutional succession. Osinbajo would have assumed the full powers, privileges, and responsibilities of the presidency.

2. Osinbajo: From VP to Incumbent President - A Formidable Force

- Reference: Precedent of Goodluck Jonathan (2010):** When President Umaru Yar'Adua died, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan ascended to the presidency. Despite initial power struggles (the "Doctrine of Necessity"), his incumbency granted him immense advantages. He went on to contest and win the PDP presidential primary and the subsequent election in 2011.

- What Would Have Happened: Osinbajo, as the sitting President, would have instantly become:

- The De Facto Leader of the APC: Controlling the party machinery, federal appointments, and patronage networks from the very apex.

    - The Unquestioned Frontrunner for the Party Ticket: Incumbency is the single greatest advantage in Nigerian politics. Challenging a sitting president from your own party for a nomination is historically fraught with difficulty and rarely successful. Osinbajo would have had the platform, visibility, and resources to consolidate power within the APC.

 - A Potentially Popular Candidate: Osinbajo's perceived technocratic competence, communication skills, and less polarizing persona compared to some established politicians could have resonated broadly, potentially unifying factions within the APC and appealing to swing voters weary of traditional power politics.

3. The Derailment of Tinubu's 25-Year Plan

- Reference: Tinubu's Political History & "Path to Power" Narrative:** Numerous biographies and political analyses (e.g., sections in "BAT: The Making of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu" or extensive media profiles) detail Tinubu's meticulous decades-long strategy to build a national political structure, culminating in the APC formation and his kingmaker role for Buhari.

- What Would Have Happened:** Buhari's death would have been a catastrophic blow to Tinubu's carefully orchestrated plan:

   - Loss of Controlled Succession:** Tinubu's strategy hinged on Buhari serving two terms and then supporting his own succession. Buhari dying prematurely removes that controlled endpoint.

    - Facing an Incumbent President: Tinubu would have found himself needing to challenge a sitting President Osinbajo for the APC ticket. This is a vastly different, and significantly harder, proposition than succeeding a term-limited ally. The power dynamics shift overwhelmingly towards the incumbent.

    - Fractured Support Base: Governors, lawmakers, and party officials dependent on federal patronage would naturally gravitate towards President Osinbajo, the source of that patronage. Tinubu's "Lagos Boys" and core loyalists would remain, but his broader coalition would face severe strain.

    - "Emilokan" Undermined at its Core: The entire "It's my turn" narrative, predicated on a debt owed by the Buhari faction/establishment for his role in 2015 and 2019, loses its primary target and context. Osinbajo, ascending constitutionally, owes no direct "turn" to Tinubu in this scenario. The moral and political force of "Emilokan" evaporates when the expected beneficiary of the "debt" (Buhari's camp) is no longer in control. Tinubu would be arguing against the constitutional president of his own party, a much harder sell.

4. The APC Primaries: A Battle Royale, Likely Won by Osinbajo

- Reference: APC Constitution & Delegates System: The APC presidential candidate is chosen by delegates (primarily elected officials and party members). Incumbency heavily influences delegate loyalty.

- Reference: History of Incumbent Advantages (e.g., Obasanjo 2003, Jonathan 2011):  Sitting presidents in Nigeria almost invariably secure their party's nomination if they seek it.

- What Would Have Happened: A bruising, high-stakes primary battle between President Osinbajo and Asiwaju Tinubu would have ensued. However:

    *   Osinbajo would control the party apparatus *as President*.

    *   Federal appointees (ministers, agency heads) constituting a significant delegate bloc would be acutely aware of who their boss is.

    *   Many governors and legislators, reliant on presidential goodwill for projects and funds, would back the incumbent.

    *   While Tinubu's formidable political machine and personal wealth would ensure a strong challenge, overcoming the structural advantages of a sitting president within the party is historically improbable. **Osinbajo would have been the overwhelming favourite to clinch the APC ticket.**

5. The Ripple Effects on Nigerian Politics

- A Different 2023 Election: The presidential race would likely have been Osinbajo (APC) vs Atiku (PDP) vs Peter Obi (LP). The dynamics, regional calculations, and voter turnout would have been significantly altered without Tinubu as the APC candidate.

- APC Unity Tested: The primary battle could have left deep scars, potentially fracturing the party or weakening it going into the general election, depending on how bitterly the Tinubu camp contested the outcome.

- The Fate of the "Lagos System":A Tinubu loss at the primaries would have been a major setback for his political empire and its influence over national politics.

Conclusion: The Precarious Thread of Fate

The scenario of Buhari dying in office is a stark reminder of how contingent political destinies can be on unforeseen events. Godwin Emefiele's naira redesign policy almost derailed Tinubu's campaign in reality; Buhari's death would have been an existential threat to his presidential ambition itself. Yemi Osinbajo, by virtue of the constitution and the power of incumbency, would have been propelled into a position of near-unassailable strength for the 2023 ticket. Tinubu's 25-year strategy, built on alliances and timing, would have collided with the immovable object of constitutional succession. The "Emilokan" cry, powerful in our timeline, would likely have echoed into a political void in this alternate one, drowned out by the swearing-in oath of President Osinbajo. It underscores a profound truth: in politics, as in life, the best-laid plans can be undone by a single, unpredictable event. Nigeria's recent political history narrowly avoided this particular twist of fate.

Published by: IgboNews